DAFC.net Forum

Forum List | Football Forum

Topic: What are the chances?
1. Author: istvan kozma Date: Fri 15th Nov 2024. 17:22 Tomorrow in the championship its 1v2 3v4 5v6 7v8 and 9v10. Thought odds were 1 in 945 but is that correct? KOZMA Post Edited (Fri 15 Nov 17:24) Reply
2. Author: buffy Date: Fri 15th Nov 2024. 17:26 Already mentioned auld yin 😉 https://dafc.net/forum/read.php?f=1&i=1948467&t=1948467 ”Buffy’s Buns are the finest in Fife”, J. Spence 2019” Reply
3. Author: RhinoPars Date: Fri 15th Nov 2024. 17:59 I stand to be corrected (and have put my working), but I make it approx 1/30,244 if you also specify this has to happen only on a specific matchday. If you take 1st then the chances of playing 2nd is 1/9 and the chance of 1st being at home is 1/2 (combined prob of 0.05555) For 3rd to draw 4th then is a 1/7 chance multiplied by 50:50 chance of 3rd being at home (combined prob of 0.07143) For 5th to draw 6th is 1/5 * 0.5 for 5th to be at home (combined prob of 0.10000) Similarly 7 and 8 = 1/3 * 1/2 (combined prob 0.16666) and the only option left for 9 is to play 10 and for 9 to be at home that is 1 *.5 (combined prob of 0.50000) For all of these to happen together you multiply the above five probabilities together. This gives you 0.000033064815 and the reciprocal of that is 1 chance of in 30,244 (rounded) of getting this combination this weekend. However if it was a case of getting this once in a season ... The first game of the season starts with everyone on 0. Assuming that from game 2 onwards we do have a 1-10 ranking (and we may not have) then presumably there would be a maximum of thirty five chances to get this over a season. The probability then increases to 0.0011572686 and the reciprocal of this gives 1 in 864 which is in the same ball park as Istvan`s 1 in 945 but a little more likely. The odds of this happening in 20 seasons are much greater - approx 1 in 42 and a lifetime of supporting the Pars for 60 years in a 10 team league is roughly 1 in 14. Thus it is not such a huge coincidence if it is just a question of it happening once in a lifetime in just one league. Post Edited (Fri 15 Nov 18:07) Reply
4. Author: parsfan Date: Fri 15th Nov 2024. 23:24 RhinoPars, Fri 15 Nov 17:59 I stand to be corrected (and have put my working), but I make it approx 1/30,244 if you also specify this has to happen only on a specific matchday. If you take 1st then the chances of playing 2nd is 1/9 and the chance of 1st being at home is 1/2 (combined prob of 0.05555) For 3rd to draw 4th then is a 1/7 chance multiplied by 50:50 chance of 3rd being at home (combined prob of 0.07143) For 5th to draw 6th is 1/5 * 0.5 for 5th to be at home (combined prob of 0.10000) Similarly 7 and 8 = 1/3 * 1/2 (combined prob 0.16666) and the only option left for 9 is to play 10 and for 9 to be at home that is 1 .5 (combined prob of 0.50000) For all of these to happen together you multiply the above five probabilities together. This gives you 0.000033064815 and the reciprocal of that is 1 chance of in 30,244 (rounded) of getting this combination this weekend. However if it was a case of getting this once in a season ... The first game of the season starts with everyone on 0. Assuming that from game 2 onwards we do have a 1-10 ranking (and we may not have) then presumably there would be a maximum of thirty five chances to get this over a season. The probability then increases to 0.0011572686 and the reciprocal of this gives 1 in 864 which is in the same ball park as Istvan`s 1 in 945 but a little more likely. The odds of this happening in 20 seasons are much greater - approx 1 in 42 and a lifetime of supporting the Pars for 60 years in a 10 team league is roughly 1 in 14. Thus it is not such a huge coincidence if it is just a question of it happening once in a lifetime in just one league. Given Falkirk are away can you not remove all the 50:50s as what we have is just the successive pairs playing each other, not necessarily the higher placed one being at home? So is it not just 1/9 * 1/7 * 1/5 * 1/3? Which is 1/945, like Kozma said. With three leagues of 10 and 36 match days** a year, there`s 360 opportunities where this could happen in the three lower senior leagues in Scotland alone. Other leagues of varying numbers here and elsewhere are available. So better than a 1 in 3 chance of it happening in any season in Scotland. In the world ever? Absolutely. (Other thread reference I think) * Going by the other thread, can`t be be arsed looking it up. ** I know all the games won`t be played over exactly 36 days. Edit: predictive text gibberish in first paragraph. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The universe is ruled by chance and indifference Post Edited (Fri 15 Nov 23:28) Reply
5. Author: istvan kozma Date: Sat 16th Nov 2024. 07:27 Think it`s simply 1/945. Other factors like specific date or which team is home or away are not being considered KOZMA Post Edited (Sat 16 Nov 07:30) Reply
6. Author: RhinoPars Date: Sat 16th Nov 2024. 11:34 Thanks, Parsfan. You and Istvan are right. I missed that Falkirk is away, which changes things. It then is just 1/9 * 1/7 * 1/5 * 1/3, which gives you Istvan`s 1 in 945 chance (ignoring who is playing at home and just looking at odds of it happening this weekend). Post Edited (Sat 16 Nov 11:36) Reply
7. Author: istvan kozma Date: Sun 17th Nov 2024. 09:39 After much consideration I put the odds of yesterday`s fixtures matching the league positions at 1/113400. This is based out the 1/945 chance of the pairings multiplied by the 1/5! or 1/120 chance of those pairings being in the right place in the league. KOZMA Reply

Post your Reply

Your Message:

By using your account you have implicitly accepted the DAFC.net Forum Rules and agree to be bound by them. You also agree that you will take sole responsibility for your post and indemnify dafc.net on all matters and costs. Refrain from making any potentially libelous comments about anyone

- - -