Forum List | Football Forum
| Topic: AI’s take on underachievers and over achievers and how to improve Scotland |
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| 1. Author: DBP Date: Fri 26th Jun 2026. 07:14 I asked, to this point in the FIFA 2026 World Cup, given the respective country population, strength of their domestic league and quality of players, eg teams they now play for - who do you think has been the biggest underachievers, and also the best over achievers? Response is obviously based on searches of news and other statistical sources, packaged nicely - but here’s the output: It`s an interesting way to judge a tournament, because you`ve suggested looking beyond just FIFA ranking and considering the "footballing resources" a country has: Population (player pool) Strength of domestic league Quality of players (Champions League/Premier League/La Liga etc.) Historical expectations Using those criteria, here`s how I`d rank the tournament through the group stage as of 26 June. Biggest underachievers 1. Belgium For me, they`re the standout disappointment. Belgium have: 12 million people (small but exceptionally productive) one of Europe`s strongest talent pipelines numerous players at elite clubs a squad that should comfortably reach the Round of 32. Instead they`ve drawn twice (vs Egypt and Iran) and now need a result against New Zealand just to be certain of progressing. Even allowing for an aging golden generation, they`ve underperformed expectations. 2. South Korea Population: ~52 million. Domestic league: K League is one of Asia`s strongest. Numerous internationals in Europe. Losing to South Africa and failing to qualify automatically from a group containing Mexico, Czechia and South Africa is a poor return. They had enough quality to expect at least second place. 3. Uruguay (so far) Given: arguably the highest footballing talent per capita in history world-class players across Europe excellent recent qualifying form Drawing Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde would represent a disappointing group campaign if they fail to top or comfortably advance. They still have time to change the narrative. 4. Scotland Not because expectations were enormous—but after beating Haiti they couldn`t build on it. With a squad full of players from the Premier League and Championship, finishing behind Morocco and Brazil is understandable, but the heavy defeat to Brazil and reliance on third-place qualification leaves them underwhelming rather than disastrous. 5. Qatar Asian champions only a few years ago and with heavy investment in football infrastructure. Conceding heavily to Canada and exiting without making a serious impression has been disappointing. Biggest overachievers 1. South Africa ⭐ This is my number one. Population helps (≈63 million), but: domestic league isn`t among Africa`s strongest relatively few players at Europe`s biggest clubs weren`t expected to finish above South Korea. Instead they: beat South Korea drew Czechia qualified second behind Mexico. That`s an outstanding campaign. 2. Cape Verde Population: Only around 600,000 people. That`s extraordinary. Drawing Spain and Uruguay would be remarkable for any African nation, let alone one with such a tiny population and limited domestic league. This is arguably the best "per capita" performance of the tournament. 3. Morocco Some may argue they aren`t overachieving anymore after their 2022 World Cup run. Still: unbeaten against Brazil topped Scotland comfortably reached the knockouts shows they`ve established themselves as one of world football`s genuine elite teams rather than a one-tournament wonder. 4. Ecuador Population: ~18 million. Domestic league isn`t especially strong. Yet: qualified from CONMEBOL ahead of several traditional powers beat Germany reached the knockout stage. A tremendous tournament so far. 5. Canada The population (around 40 million) is large, but football remains behind hockey, basketball and other sports in participation and tradition. Six goals against Qatar and a place in the knockout stage suggest they`re becoming a genuine football nation rather than just benefiting from hosting. Teams performing about as expected Argentina — excellent. France — excellent. England — solid if unspectacular. Brazil — improving after an opening draw. Netherlands — quietly very efficient. Portugal — comfortably handling business. The one team I`d highlight above all others is South Africa. Relative to their player pool, domestic league, and the number of footballers competing at Europe`s top clubs, reaching the knockout stage ahead of South Korea is arguably the tournament`s biggest positive surprise so far. Conversely, Belgium stands out as the biggest disappointment. Despite a deep talent pool and players at elite European clubs, they`ve put themselves in a precarious position in a group they would have expected to navigate comfortably. Post Edited (Fri 26 Jun 07:23) Reply |
| 2. Author: DBP Date: Fri 26th Jun 2026. 07:23 I asked a follow up question that as Scotland has started to qualify for international soccer tournaments again, but unable to make headway once at those tournaments - how would you suggest we could improve that, for example by taking learning from other nations who are now starting to compete internationally, changing personnel, changing how the domestic game is operated, etc Any thing that has worked elsewhere for National teams in a similar position as Scotland find themselves now? Response: I actually think Scotland are in a fascinating position because, in one sense, they`ve already solved the hardest problem. For almost 25 years (1998–2020), Scotland couldn`t consistently qualify. Under Steve Clarke, that changed. Three consecutive major tournaments is genuine progress, and qualifying from a difficult UEFA confederation isn`t easy. The next challenge is different: becoming a nation that expects to compete at tournaments rather than simply reach them. If I were advising the Scottish Football Association over the next 10 years, I`d focus less on changing the senior manager and much more on changing the system underneath. 1. Learn from Croatia, not England This is probably the biggest lesson. Scotland (population ~5.5 million) should compare itself with countries like: Croatia (3.8 million) Uruguay (3.5 million) Denmark (6 million) Switzerland (9 million) —not England, France or Germany. Those countries all have one thing in common: Their best players leave home young. They don`t try to make their domestic league one of Europe`s elite. Instead they make it one of Europe`s best development leagues. That`s a huge distinction. 2. Scotland exports too few technically elite players Think about Scotland`s current squad. Most players come through: Scottish Premiership Championship lower Premier League clubs Very few become regular starters at: Real Madrid CF FC Barcelona Bayern Munich Paris Saint-Germain F.C. Compare that with Croatia. Every generation seems to produce players developed at Dinamo Zagreb before moving into Europe`s elite while still in their early 20s. That has to become Scotland`s model. 3. The Premiership has become too comfortable This might be controversial. Outside the Old Firm, Scottish clubs often judge success by finishing 5th–8th. Player development isn`t always the overriding objective. Contrast that with: Croatia Belgium Netherlands Portugal Those clubs know they`ll lose their best players. That`s the business model. Scotland could become much stronger if clubs saw themselves as producing £15–30 million players rather than trying to keep good players until age 28. 4. Produce more midfielders This is where Scotland consistently lags behind. Scotland produces: centre-halves hard-working midfielders full-backs strikers What Scotland rarely produces is the player who controls a tournament game. Think of: Luka Modrić Martin Ødegaard Granit Xhaka Kevin De Bruyne Those players dictate tempo. Scotland`s academy coaching should arguably spend far more time producing technical central midfielders than athletic players. 5. Change youth football philosophy Spain changed after failing repeatedly. Germany changed after Euro 2000. Belgium completely rebuilt its academy structure after years of disappointment. All three shifted emphasis toward: technique decision making possession under pressure small-sided games creativity Scotland has improved enormously, but culturally still values work rate and organisation slightly more than technical excellence. Ideally, you`d want both. 6. Be more adaptable tactically Steve Clarke deserves enormous credit. His organisation got Scotland back to tournaments. But tournament football often rewards flexibility. Look at Morocco in 2022. They could: defend deep counter press high keep possession when needed Scotland sometimes look like they have only one way of playing. Against elite opposition that becomes predictable. 7. Get more players abroad earlier One thing Denmark and Croatia do exceptionally well: A talented 19-year-old doesn`t necessarily stay home. He moves. Maybe: Netherlands Belgium Germany Austria Those leagues improve players enormously. Scotland arguably keeps some promising players in the Premiership longer than is ideal. 8. Stop measuring success by qualification This is more psychological than tactical. For decades, qualifying was success. Now the benchmark should be: qualify regularly get through the group occasionally reach a quarter-final That`s exactly the progression Denmark made between the 1990s and today. Would I change the manager? Not immediately. Steve Clarke transformed Scotland from a team that expected to miss tournaments into one that expects to qualify. That`s a significant achievement. The next manager, though, should probably be chosen with a different brief: "Can you make Scotland play proactively against teams ranked 15–40 in the world?" That`s a different challenge from rebuilding belief. My "Croatia model" for Scotland If Scotland copied one country, it would be Croatia. Not because Scotland can become Croatia overnight—Croatia`s success is exceptional—but because the principles are transferable: Accept being a small nation. Make youth development the priority. Export players early. Prioritise technical quality over physicality. Ensure every age group plays the same style. Aim to produce one or two genuinely elite players each generation, rather than many solid professionals. If Scotland consistently had even five or six regular starters at Champions League-level clubs, alongside the strong team spirit and organisation they`ve shown under Clarke, reaching the knockout stages of major tournaments would become a much more realistic expectation than it has been in recent decades. Reply |
| 3. Author: wee eck Date: Fri 26th Jun 2026. 08:06 I`m sure it must be news to most Scotland fans that we consistently produce centre backs and strikers at the expense of midfielders who can control a game! It`s a fair point about midfielders although Billy Gilmour is probably the best we have in this area but unfortunately he missed out on the WC. Reply |
| 4. Author: Jeffery Date: Fri 26th Jun 2026. 09:47 Its a question worth asking but it would be a clearer over/under result after the group games have concluded. It`s dubious analysis with teams still to play games. Belgium could still win their group for example. Reply |
| 5. Author: Bandy Date: Fri 26th Jun 2026. 10:37 We were unlucky to be in a group that plays early. We were also unlucky to be a group with two of the top teams in the world. We were also unlucky that Brazil had something to play for when we played them. We were unlucky that the ref had an absolute howler v Morocco. Of course we could have overcome that bad luck by playing better, but sometimes you need a little bit of luck to fall your way. That didn`t happen. In terms of players - I think we are actually seeing players moving abroad earlier. The younger lads in Italy (Doig, Bowie, Miller) are playing at a much higher level than they`d be playing at here, so that bodes well for the future. I agree with the AI that the SPFL is a problem - it was less of a problem 30-40 years ago when genuinely top players were playing in the Scottish top flight, because then the SPFL was genuinely a very high standard of football. Those days are long gone now - I mean the idea of Aberdeen being to buy a full current Dutch international these days sounds so far fetched it`s almost comical, but 30-40 years ago they could do just that. So the SPFL is still massively skewed towards two clubs, but they are comparatively weaker than the global standard, so reaching the top in Scottish Football counts for very very little these days. Our players need to learn from the likes of Croatia and Norway where young players go abroad early and quickly `sink or swim` in a completely different environment. I don`t think it`s a coincidence that arguably Scotland`s finest ever sportsman left Dunblane at 15 and moved to Spain to train and test himself against the very best. Reply |
| 6. Author: JTH123 Date: Fri 26th Jun 2026. 14:05 If, ahead of the tournament, you were trying to create a forecast of how you thought the games would go, you would surely be thinking that a win of 1 goal against Haiti wouldn`t sufficiently offset the likely negative goal difference against the other 2 teams based on their ranking? On that basis, should we not have gone all out to try and score a few against Haiti to try and bank the goal difference? Not doing so seems a little hopeful at best. Reply |
| 7. Author: Stanza Date: Fri 26th Jun 2026. 16:25 I would add to the AI analysis a point about the health of Scottish society. When travelling in the Netherlands and Scandinavia I`m always impressed by how active the people of all ages are, whether it`s running, cycling, playing sports or just walking from place to place. And when the weather is bad, indoor facilities are excellent. As at 2022, the UK obesity rate was 28.7%, with Scotland`s obesity rate probably about 2 percentage points above this. Compare this with Iceland 22.6%, Norway 19.8%, Netherlands 16.9%, Sweden 16.4%, Denmark 14.3%. Obesity rates in Mediterranean countries also tend to be lower than the UK (diet?) and African countries (which supply footballers to most countries moreso than to Scotland) are lower again. And although the Tartan Army`s exploits were fantastic, and they have been magnificent ambassadors for Scotland, a nation that can down vast quantities of alcohol isn`t particularly healthy! There have always been uniquely talented footballers coming from disadvantaged backgrounds and/or acquainted with alcohol (Best, Johnstone, Gascoigne etc) but the broader the base of fit young adults the greater is the potential height of the pyramid. As an aside, improving public health would also benefit the NHS, since preventative measures are cheaper than dealing with the effects of poor health. Sadly there is little sign of this. _________________  Support Dunfermline Athletic Disabled Supporters` Club (DADSC) when you shop online with one of 8000 firms: http://www.easyfundraising.org.uk/causes/dadsc[Post Edited (Fri 26 Jun 16:26) Reply |
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