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| 1. Author: OzPar Date: Tue 9th Mar 2021. 01:33 Anyone out there with an interest in crypto currency? The recent price surge in the Doge coin, largely assisted by a big investment from Elon Musk, sparked my curiosity and I thought I would dip my toes in to see what it is all about. I have been retired for a couple of years now and have watched my cash earn next to no interest in bank savings accounts and the money in my private pension is largely at the behest of the mixed fortunes of the stock market. So, just about a month ago, I bought A$1,400 worth of crypto currency. I figured that I could afford that without losing too much sleep if I lost the lot. Anyway, I reckoned this was roughly the equivalent of the three or four weekends away that I had missed out on during our long Covid lockdown. I split the investment into $600 with Bitcoin, $600 with Doge, $100 in a basket of the top 10 capitalised coins, and $50 each on a couple of “randoms” that were climbing fast on the day – IOTA and Crypto.com. So, what’s happened to my investment? Well, as soon as I bought the coins, my $1,400 dropped about $40 in broking costs, and the value up until a couple of hours ago had stayed below that figure, sometimes well below... One thing I have learned is that this is not a market for the faint hearted – price fluctuations can be enormous. At one point my portfolio dropped to $1,166, meaning that effectively I had lost almost 20% of my capital in a couple of weeks! However, it has recovered well and this morning, for the very first time, I am now actually in profit. It is definitely a long-term game. I think it would be insane to day trade in this market. But it is clear that crypto currency is now becoming an established presence in the financial scene. We will see a lot more of it in our day to day lives. I don’t expect to make my fortune from this, but it is fun to check on the price now and again. And it is hard to ignore that Bitcoin has jumped five-fold in value from what it was in October last year. Reply |
| 2. Author: GG741 Date: Tue 9th Mar 2021. 03:12 I am far from being an expert, but aren`t the price fluctuations purely based on supply/demand, as there doesn`t seem to be any other basis for the "value" of cryptocurrencies? Did you also incur a foreign exchange rate risk in your investing? I understood that all cryptos are priced against USD, so any movement in the USD/AUD market also impacts on your AUD/crypto "value". And with the extremely volatile movements of the "value", wouldn`t that decrease the likelihood of wider acceptance of cryptos? Reply |
| 3. Author: OzPar Date: Tue 9th Mar 2021. 04:11 Interesting questions GG741 and as you have probably gathered, I am certainly no expert in this area either. Perhaps others on here with more financial nous than me can answer your questions more fully? On the issues of supply/demand and basis of value, I am led to understand that one of the strengths of Bitcoin is that it has a cap on the number of coins that can be produced. Presumably, when the cap is reached and the volume is fixed, then the inherent value should rise owing to supply/demand. The comparison with the existing money system is a fascinating one to ponder. For where is the underlying basis of value in the pound or the dollar or the Euro? Since the gold standard was abandoned for fiat, there is nothing holding up these currencies beyond a promissory note on a piece of paper. Not to mention quantative easing... printing money in order to service national debts. When will that end? Never, I suspect. At least bitcoin has a cap! As for Forex, I honestly haven`t given that any thought. My strategy with crypto is to take a long view, perhaps two or three years. It has not been a big outlay, so I can`t see a significant downside. I monitor the crypto prices in Aussie dollars anyway, so what is going on in the exchange rate day to day is of little relevance to me. Reply |
| 4. Author: Jbob Date: Tue 9th Mar 2021. 08:52 Gambling in another form. Bobs of the world unite Reply |
| 5. Author: Luxembourg Par Date: Tue 9th Mar 2021. 10:43 I`m a little cheesed off... I bought a few Bitcoin years ago (2013 i think) for a little dodgy enterprise. Paid about 400 euro in cash for 5 bitcoins www.localbitcoins.com met the guy in Pizza hut, handed over cash and got a transfer on my phone. Completely unconvinced, but whatever... Sadly, I used about 4 and a half of them to purchase some electronic gear... The last 0.5 btc were just left in the wallet - and have increased to about 0.61 in the last `Fork`, currently valued at Eur 27k! the 5btc would have been worth 230k :-(  Reply |
| 6. Author: Wotsit Date: Tue 9th Mar 2021. 12:22 My worry with cryptocurrency is the environmental hit they create. They are "mined" using high end, power hungry, PC equipment and cryptocurrency mining is now accounting for a significant portion of global energy use. The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy. Reply |
| 7. Author: Malcolm Canmore Date: Tue 9th Mar 2021. 18:58 It smacks of Tulipmania. If you don’t understand something (how is it created? How do I know my “asset” really exists and is safely held for my benefit? What makes the price move? How do I sell?) you shouldn’t invest in it. My dog eats meat Reply |
| 8. Author: Wotsit Date: Tue 9th Mar 2021. 21:43 All of those could describe any currency to be fair MC. Back in the day cash was backed by bullion, which had some degree of agreed value due to scarcity and difficulty to reproduce without a supercollider. Now it seems to be created out of thin air by the cunning use of debt. Which has even less intrinsic value than gold. Bitcoin is basically the same as bullion-backed currencies except the scarce commodity is the energy which is spent solving a hard sum on a hot computer. The trust which needs to be placed in bitcoin when people agree between themselves that it has value for making transactions, keeping cash safe or making it grow is no different from the trust that people place in any currency. Except that it doesn`t have an army looking after its interests I suppose. The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy. Reply |
| 9. Author: Malcolm Canmore Date: Fri 12th Mar 2021. 22:10 Wotsit, Tue 09 Mar 21:43 Not quite the same. If I buy US dollars, I will hold them through some form of bank account and can rely on FSCS and a whole raft of regulation to give me confidence that my dollars exist and are held to my order. If I want to sell, I can be very confident of being able to do so. The price moves, but the volatility is low and explicable. If I bought a cryptocurrency, I have to hope that the “asset” really exists and that it is held safely for my benefit. If I want to sell, I am pretty much at a roulette table when it comes to price. My dog eats meat Reply |
| 10. Author: OzPar Date: Sun 14th Mar 2021. 00:57 I must admit that I shared your skepticism Malcolm Canmore for a very long time, but I`m amazed at the impact that the blockchain has had on my own industry literally overturning the way international trade has been carried out for hundreds of years and making the movement of goods a seamless and transparent process. It will do the same in the finance markets, for everything is interlinked. While there are far too many players in the crypto market currently, the weaker ones will be shaken out and there will be consolidation. More and more businesses and financial institutions are recognising that crypto is a thing that is not going to go away in the money market and they are buying in. There is much more transparency in the system than in the past. The income is reportable and taxable, the coin exchanges are sophisticated - the one that I use is directly linked to my bank account and I can shift money either way with relative ease. There are protections in place to ensure the money doesn`t suddenly disappear overnight. I have not risked any more than I can afford and no one should. As I write, after four weeks, my initial investment of $1,400 now stands at $1,531. That represents an incredibly good return were I to cash it in now. But as I said earlier, after a fortnight the value had plunged to $1,166, so clearly it is a volatile market subject to dramatic peaks and troughs. People looking for short-term profits can get savagely burned. However if you look at the graphs, the underlying trend is upward and that is why I`ll maintain a long-term view and will be keeping my money in. Reply |
| 11. Author: Buspasspar Date: Sun 14th Mar 2021. 08:23 $60,000 today Oz :) We are forever shaped by the Children we once were Reply |
| 12. Author: Parboiled Date: Sun 14th Mar 2021. 11:26 I’d sooner dip my down below bits in a bath of barracuda. Reply |
| 13. Author: Wotsit Date: Sun 14th Mar 2021. 12:01 Not quite the same. If I buy US dollars, I will hold them through some form of bank account and can rely on FSCS and a whole raft of regulation to give me confidence that my dollars exist and are held to my order. I`d argue that those are part of the trust that`s evolved and it applies to relatively few currencies given the way in which currencies are traded internationally. Even the UK got a taste of this in 1992 when currency traders targeted the £. Crypotocurrency has other layers of trust which are not present in US$, such as not being wholly reliant on institutions which can make mistakes, be self-interested or fail. I`m certain, for example, that a good few investors were not close to being fully recompensated by the financial settlements they received from FSCS after the last financial crash. The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy. Reply |
| 14. Author: OzPar Date: Sun 11th Apr 2021. 23:10 Two months have gone by since I started this experiment with crypto currency. The balance of my portfolio is now $1608, so my initial investment of $1,400 has risen $208 in two months, or 14.9%. Spread over a year that would represent an extraordinary interest rate of 89.4%! In other words, at the current rate of growth I would expect my $1,400 to double to $2,800 in just over 13 months from starting. I entered this with some skepticism, fully prepared to lose the lot if things went south. And while I am yet to be convinced that this is not an elaborate mirage, I am certain that it represents a far better investment than going down the bookies. I`ll report in again with an update in four weeks. Reply |
| 15. Author: LochgellyAlbert Date: Mon 12th Apr 2021. 11:46 Waiting on USA court case against XRP to be dropped, so I can make some profit. Reply |
| 16. Author: Malcolm Canmore Date: Fri 16th Apr 2021. 20:18 Wotsit, Sun 14 Mar 12:01 Take everything you don’t understand about computers and combine it with everything you don’t understand about money and you have cryptocurrency. My dog eats meat Reply |
| 17. Author: red-star-par Date: Fri 16th Apr 2021. 20:51 I dip into this market now and then, there is money to be made there. I suspect its a matter of time before Governments around the world get nervous and try and shut some of these down. Realistically we can't have coin mining using enough electricity to power a large country, it doesn't make sense, so I think something will happen to make these crash. I have done quite well out of shares in a company called Coincillium, and a Swedish EBT Ether Tracker. My particular favourite is Reddcoin, which has actually gone up 27.5% today. Only advice I would say is not to use money that you can't afford to lose, as there is every chance that they could be worthless overnight. It's likely to be a tulip bubble Reply |
| 18. Author: NikNakPar Date: Sat 17th Apr 2021. 21:21 A friend of mine is doing future trades. He started with a 1.5k pot 6 days ago. At 3 this afternoon he has a 8k pot. There is money to be made but also lost. He didn't just dive in either he has spent a couple month studying. He is very clever which may or may not help but he said his engineering mathematics is very useful for the future trading. Reply |
| 19. Author: parsmad68 Date: Sun 18th Apr 2021. 10:06 NikNakPar, Sat 17 Apr 21:21 I would be interested whether his theories or hypothesis were tested prior to venturing into the market. Also how often he was sampling data during any testing of theories. I am interested in what those tools were more than the trading. Reply |
| 20. Author: OzPar Date: Sun 18th Apr 2021. 16:44 It has been an extraordinary few days on the crypto currency market with the Dogecoin price soaring, lifting most of the other coin values with it. All my previous expectations have gone out the window. As I have said before, for me this is nothing more than an interesting experiment and clearly no one should risk more than they can afford. I invested $1,400 on the 11th February in a handful of different coins. At the moment, I could cash out and transfer $3,468 into my bank account, but I won`t. My intention was to see how this goes over a 12 month period and I am sticking with that plan. Reply |
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