| Topic: A dip into the cryptocurrency market |
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| 61. Author: OzPar Date: Wed 22nd Sep 2021. 00:31 Another month goes by and yet another "wipe out". There is a certain regularity to this that, after 7 months or so, I am growing quite used to. Every few weeks we seem to get a surge or a bust. When reviewed over time, the graph of my portfolio value resembles a sine curve, except that it reminds me more of a tidal graph where on each rising spring tide the peak gets just that little bit higher than it was before, as does the trough. It has yet to swing to a neap tide where the inherent value progressively declines, and I am sure there are investors out there who await a tsunami, where the tide rushes out all but disappearing, before fooding in at a ferocious rate to deliver undreamt-of profits. As desperado has pointed out, there has been another "correction". But it helps to take a longer view to gain some perspective. Looking at my portfolio today, its value is $2,494. That is $919 down on where it was when I reported last month, but still $1,094 up on where I started in February. In other words, my initial $1,400 has grown 78% in seven months. Crypto clearly is not a short-term speculative market. If you want to avoid frequent heart attacks, it probably best to either avoid it altogether or adopt the view that it is best not to check its value every day. Who knows where it will be next month? If the long-tern trend is correct, then it is likely to have increased in value. Reply |
| 62. Author: parathletic Date: Fri 24th Sep 2021. 13:42 China have announced that all crypto-currencies are illegal-I imagine that will hit the market hard? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-58678907 Reply |
| 63. Author: OzPar Date: Thu 21st Oct 2021. 08:47 Another month has gone by and, as I predicted, my portfolio has largely climbed back to where it was. It is at $3,360 today, a lift of $866 on where we left it this time last month. Since February, my initial investment of $1,400 has grown 240% in 8 months. Had I left my money in a fixed interest term deposit, my balance would be $1,417 at the annual rate of 1.84% currently on offer at my ever-generous bank. The latest surge in crypto has come as more businesses, professional investors, and even the government of El Salvador buy into Bitcoin, further broadening its base beyond its initial core of fanatics. The latest converts came into the world of crypto on Tuesday, when the first exchange-traded fund (EFT) linked to Bitcoin found massive interest from investors. One school of thought says Bitcoin can offer investors protection from high inflation, and some fans see it as akin to “digital gold,” though it doesn`t have a long track record to back that up. More high-minded fans say digital assets are simply the future of finance, allowing transactions to sidestep intermediaries and fees with a currency that’s not beholden to any government. Cryptocurrencies are still very far from winning over everyone, though. Critics - and there are a few on here - point to how they`re still not widely used as forms of payment. They also criticise how much energy is used by the cryptosystem, which adds to climate-changing emissions. It will end in tears, according to some. These past eight months have been a rocky ride for sure, but the numbers don`t lie. If you have been following this thread from the start, you will know that apart from a brief dip in the first month, the portfolio has steadily grown in value. At one point, in early May, I could have cashed out my $1,400 at $7,100. But that would defeat the point of this experiment. I have set a timeline of 12 months for this and right now, we are two-thirds of the way through it. I am not risking the house and it is a little bit of fun. And, hopefully, you too find it interesting and worthwhile. We may be glimpsing the future of finance or we could indeed be witnessing an ever-so elaborate ponzy scheme. There`s four months to go for this experiment to play out. Personally, my money is on the outcome being the former. Reply |
| 64. Author: parsmad68 Date: Thu 21st Oct 2021. 09:33 Is there any underlying monthly trends you are starting to see in growth or is the volatility still clouding the market. I know it is only a small amount of data but wanted to know if there is a regular sustained growth or whether the causal events still rule the roost Edit: also whether at these major news events. I.e. country decision announcements have any definable impact effect on the currency. Post Edited (Thu 21 Oct 09:41) Reply |
| 65. Author: The One Who Knocks Date: Thu 21st Oct 2021. 09:39 Will be interesting to see what happens to cryptos if Evergrande defaults on its debt repayments this month. And although my eyes were open They just might as well be closed Reply |
| 66. Author: desparado Date: Thu 21st Oct 2021. 23:35 I am still riding the rollercoaster with swings of a few grand per week. I don’t freak out as much now when it goes down as I am holding Eth, Ada and Vet for the long haul. However I decided a couple of weeks ago to pump a little more into some lesser known Alt coins and have even blocked by my bank and another. Still trying to find a way to invest a little more. Anyone having a similar issue with bank blocking ? What an opportunity we missed in 2014. Reply |
| 67. Author: londonparsfan Date: Fri 22nd Oct 2021. 13:02 Are any of you noticing recurring events that cause the dips or increases? Elon Musks Tweets 😉 I know it's stating the obvious but if you could sell the peaks and buy the dips then even if you only caught a relatively small number it would probably boost your P in the P&L a bit. I know it's difficult when it's so volatile but I've never had a look to see how viable it is. I know if it was easy everyone would do it. Reply |
| 68. Author: desparado Date: Fri 22nd Oct 2021. 23:18 Yes a little bit of media speculation or a tweet even by a big hitter can cause crypto to wobble. Jamie Dimon from JP Morgan made a few disparaging comments regarding Bitcoin recently. He has form spooking the market then buying at the dip himself. Did not seem to work this time as Bitcoin had risen since his comment. I personally don’t have the time to monitor it all. I am just sitting tight hoping that my coins will increase substantially over the next, say five years. I would like a little dabble on some random ridiculously low priced coins though but as I said previously I am having issues depositing Fiat due to my banks blocking the transfers. I will find a way around that though. Crypto is here to stay and you will make far more than leaving money rotting in a bank account…. If you can handle the wild swings. What an opportunity we missed in 2014. Reply |
| 69. Author: OzPar Date: Sat 23rd Oct 2021. 02:29 PARSMAD68 ASKED: "Is there any underlying monthly trends you are starting to see in growth, or is the volatility still clouding the market. I know it is only a small amount of data, but I wanted to know if there is a regular, sustained growth or whether the causal events still rule the roost. Edit: also whether at these major news events. I.e. country decision announcements have any definable impact effect on the currency." === Interesting questions. Despite sharp fluctuations up and down, there are indeed clear trends and patterns to be seen. And if you have the patience and determination to sit these out, you will, for the most part, see the value of your portfolio grow. I frequently mention it in this thread, but let`s, for the sake of clarity, repeat it... THIS IS NOT A MARKET FOR SHORT-TERM INVESTORS. One of the beauties of modern-day investing is that you can pull up endless analytical tools at the click of a computer mouse, most of which are pretty simple to comprehend. It doesn`t take too long to discern a change in a trading pattern that will point you to when a price is likely to peak or trough if carefully monitored. The secret is not to be transfixed on what is happening at the moment but to zoom out to weeks and months, even years, to get a clearer picture of where this event sits in the overall scheme of things. You would be amazed how often what appears to be a catastrophic plunge is but a minor and utterly predictable price dip when the graph is zoomed out far enough. Perspective is a beautiful thing. I take the view that Elon Musk is someone to steer well clear of in the crypto market. His comments seem to me to be pure market manipulation. In any other regulated market, he would be pulled up for it, but crypto is still the relatively wild west, for how much longer remains to be seen. The problem is that Musk has an enormous flock of devoted followers, and three words from him can prompt a rush of buying or selling. Currently, he can move a market on his own, and the result is that a lot of inexperienced investors are being sucked in and thrown out, usually losing most of their limited wealth in the process. Increasingly, you can see the institutional investors sweeping up the bargain basement coins when the price plummets. Like it or not, crypto is fast becoming mainstream. Not all crypto coins will survive, but many will. You have to make sure that you stick the bulk of your crypto portfolio with those coins that tend to be best supported. Don`t risk too much on what you might call "bargain stock". As for causal events? To date, I haven`t observed any single external event that has had a long-term impact on my set of coins. And given that we`ve had the grand-daddy of Black Swan events with Covid-19, that is remarkable. There is much talk about the Chinese Government taking a hard line on crypto, but one wonders if this is not just part of an elaborate ruse, a precursor to launching their own cryptocurrency. I have yet to meet a Chinaman who knowingly walks away from an opportunity to make money. Their adherence to rigid communism seems to me to be pretty flexible these days. It is all about supply and demand. And as long as there is demand, my hunch is that the underlying price for cryptocurrency will continue to increase. I mentioned this in a post two or three months ago, but I think it is probably the most pertinent comment I can make, based on my experience with cryptocurrencies so far... The crypto price graphs most strikingly resemble Tidal Graphs showing a spring tide when observed over the long term. The price follows a clearly defined sine curve where each following peak and each following trough is notably higher than its predecessor. This is borne out on the underlying value of my portfolio. While fluctuating up and down regularly (going from peak to peak every five to seven weeks), it has grown from $1,400 to $3,400 in eight months. It is hard to ignore those numbers. My advice would be to get in sooner rather than later, but of course, only risk what you can afford to lose. However, I have a nagging concern behind this optimistic picture now that crypto attracts big investment houses. My problem is that they will seek to dominate the market and, where possible, increasingly exclude the smaller investor. I can envision a manipulated market-driven event where the bottom seemingly drops out of cryptocurrencies very quickly, much like the water disappears from the beach ahead of a tsunami. As the small investors sell in panic, the institutions sweep up the coins, and suddenly, the tsunami arrives with force and crypto prices climb to once-unthinkable levels. Of course, the secret then would be to recognise this while it was happening, hold on to your coins, and buy like mad on the plunge. Then, you have to hang on for the ride, check the new value of your portfolio, and calmly announce your retirement... Post Edited (Sat 23 Oct 02:52) Reply |
| 70. Author: londonparsfan Date: Sat 23rd Oct 2021. 09:04 Cheers Oz/Desperado! Reply |
| 71. Author: ipswichpar Date: Sat 23rd Oct 2021. 09:49 I'll be keeping my hard-earned as far away as possible from this. Reply |
| 72. Author: The One Who Knocks Date: Sat 23rd Oct 2021. 10:42 Ipswich, if you invest in crypto all you have to do is get another two people to invest in it after you and then for them both to get another two people to invest and so on and you`ll see your investment rise. And although my eyes were open They just might as well be closed Reply |
| 73. Author: ipswichpar Date: Sat 23rd Oct 2021. 11:48 If you put it like that TOWK I might reconsider. What could go wrong? Reply |
| 74. Author: The One Who Knocks Date: Sat 23rd Oct 2021. 12:03 Nothing will go wrong Ipswich as long as nobody tells the emperor he has no clothes on. And although my eyes were open They just might as well be closed Reply |
| 75. Author: OzPar Date: Sat 23rd Oct 2021. 12:20 Ipswich/TOWK - you are perfectly entitled to be sceptical, but one thing crypto is not is a pyramid scheme. It is structured in an entirely different way and, through Blockchain, has accountable financial trails. Currently, I have a very handy two grand that I didn`t have eight months ago to fund a new suit for the Emporer should he need it in an emergency. :) Reply |
| 76. Author: The One Who Knocks Date: Sat 23rd Oct 2021. 12:39 Hey I didn`t say nobody won`t make money out of it. Of course those profits are only realised when the coins are sold. Its interesting to note that about one third of all Bitcoin currently in existence are owned by about 1000 people. And although my eyes were open They just might as well be closed Reply |
| 77. Author: red-star-par Date: Wed 27th Oct 2021. 13:49 Shiba Inu has been one I recently had a flutter on, trebled my money in a couple of weeks. Some decent gains today on that. It is a gamble though, don't put your money in to crypto unless you are prepared to lose it Reply |
| 78. Author: DBP Date: Thu 28th Oct 2021. 06:42 "Hey I didn`t say nobody won`t make money out of it. Of course those profits are only realised when the coins are sold" Or used to buy stuff as a currency themselves? Reply |
| 79. Author: ipswichpar Date: Mon 1st Nov 2021. 23:54 Squidgame craziness.... https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/nov/01/squid-game-cryptocurrency-scam-fears-investors Post Edited (Mon 01 Nov 23:54) Reply |
| 80. Author: DBP Date: Tue 2nd Nov 2021. 07:28 For me, all the other coins are just a fad and the big question is when do you get on the bitcoin bus? ie what price do you invest. Yes it has the odd tidal blip but it recovers quick and the trajectory is upwards - this will only increase as there is a finite supply and the max is getting nearer, big players are buying in and while gov's may not like it - at the end of the day they can't control it or tax it - you have to ask when do you jump as long term I don't think it's a boat you want to miss Reply |